This Week in Badgers: Fall Camp HYPE
Season 2, Episode 5
Welcome to This Week in Badgers where we load up on Fall Camp Hype, talk expectations on defense and finish with a cross-sport Graham Mertz comp.
Hype Train Time
There have been lots of “how is this going to work?” questions with CFB and COVID and of course the most pressing question is how are we going to get irrationally excited about a player if we’re relying on the State Sponsored Media to tell us?
Fear not! We have hype! Let’s run through a few.
Herbig
Future Badgers Graduate Assistant Madison Cone:
Future Assistant Strength Coach Collin Wilder
Clearly there is playing time to be had at OLB, which is generally a place guys take a while to develop into playing time. I think a natural reaction might be to wonder if this is an indictment of the current OLB group if a True Freshman is able to step in, or is Herbig that good?
Obviously have no idea how good Herbig is but we can tackle the first part of the question. I wouldn’t sweat recent history at the position. Taking a look at some OLB starters since they moved to the 3-4
Vince Biegel: Similar recruiting profile as Herbig, was set to play as a True Freshman before he was injured
Leon Jacobs, TJ Watt, Garrett Dooley: Started at other positions before moving to OLB
Zack Baun: Undersized and injured early in career
Van Ginkel: Transfered in
Noah Burks: This one fits the developmental narrative
It feels like it just happened to work out that a lot of guys ended up taking some time before flashing at OLB and not something inherently special about the position. ILB is probably more physically demanding and Orr, Sanborn and Chenal all contributed as True Freshman.
Offensive Line is really the only place I’d be worried if a True Freshman was a day one starter. Herbig could be a great compliment to some of the older, call them less explosive guys like Burks and Goetz (somehow only a Sophomore, could have swore he was a 6th year Senior) who could be the edge setting type of player on rushing downs while Herbig could contribute more as a pass rush situational guy.
Keeanu Benton
I am ALL THE WAY IN on the Keeanu Benton Hype Train. Last year he was able to do some things at DT that they haven’t had in a long, long time and I was wondering if they might try to do more with him in 2020. Not to drag Olive Sagapolu and guys like him, but Benton seems like he can be more than a guy who sits in the middle and takes up a couple of blockers on first down. Getting him involved in the Nickel is a great development and really setting him up for a big year.
Graham Mertz
We’ll touch on the Mertz hype in a bit, but he does throw a pretty ball. No word on his ability to hit a moving golf cart.
Chimere Dike
I swore I wouldn’t overreact to WR highlights (remember this?) and I won’t here, but it does seem like Dike is a name you’re hearing a lot. This is a big year for the WR group. They’ve trimmed some of the non-contributors from last year and have a bunch of guys with some time in the system. My whining about the Taylor/Pryor/Davis trio was that they’re great making catches in traffic, but it seems like they always have to make catches in traffic because they don’t have the route running skills or speed to get open on their own.
There is really a great opportunity for a speed and deep threat option to emerge, with Pryor, Davis and Ferguson able to handle the short and middle of the field. Here’s hoping Dike, or somebody new can step up.
Other stuff I’ve Zapruder’d out of the practice videos
Dietzen at Center on the 2nd team line, with Smithback at LG and Furtney at LT
Kayden Lyles playing LG with the 1s in the Mertz/Davis clip, then running drills at C in the other videos. They are just messing with us at this point.
Lucas Tweet
You can tell when Lucas workshops a Tweet for a couple of days before posting. I love it.
Recruiting: Not a whole lot cooking right now. 2021 OLB target Jake Ratzlaff is a Minnesota Gopher hockey commit, but also holds football offers from Minnesota and Wisconsin. There’s a thought that if he chooses football it will be Wisconsin.
I’m sure you all watched the NHL Draft last week and noticed he was not taken, which may push him towards football over hockey. This is just my take, but I feel like if you have a guy picking between two sports, they almost always end up choosing the more popular one. You see it when most MLB draft prospects who are also good at football pick football, and I would bet a guy on the fence here picks football.
Lets Remember Some Games
Before we start, if you can tell me who #23 is in that top picture without looking it up let me know. You will get a special shout out next week and I will genuinely be in awe of your Badger Football recall.
OK Let’s Remember Some Games
Today we’re remembering the 31-28 victory over Minnesota in 2009. The aughts were a pretty good stretch for the rivalry and this game was a fitting end to the decade. We of course remember the walk-off kick by Minnesota to win in 2003 and the blocked punt game in 2005, but 2007 and 2008 were pretty competitive as well with narrow Badger victories.
Both programs thought they were on the upswing in 2009. The Badgers had come off a disastrous 2008 season and were starting turn things around in 2009. After some iffy non-conference play they put the hammer down against Sparty the week before (it was 38-30 only made close by 2 Sparty TDs in last two minutes), and it appeared they finally had a QB after Tolzien’s coming out party with 243 yards and 4 TDs.
The Gophers were in year 3 with Tim Brewster, having gone 1-11 and 7-6, then started 2009 off by winning 3 of their first 4, including a nice road victory against Northwestern. They had just moved into their new stadium and this was the first B10 game at TCF.
The Badgers didn’t really have any answer for Eric Decker, who went 8-140-1, but were able to shut down Minnesota’s running game. On the other side of the ball it was a classic John Clay performance with 32-184-3, just pounding the ball against the Gophers DL.
Really what makes this game stick out to me is the purest Paul Chryst play call of all time. We’ll get to that in a moment.
The Badgers trailed going into halftime but really dominated the 2nd half. With 8 minutes left the Badgers had the ball up 24-13, threatening to put the game away, and Zach Brown fumbled at the 12, the Gopher scooped it up and took it back for an 88 yard TD and the game ending drive gave way to a 24-20 nail biter.
Fast forward, Badgers have the ball back, 4 minutes left near midfield with 2nd and 10, holding on to that 3 point lead. They’ve run John Clay into the teeth of the Gopher defense 30 times in the previous 3 hours of football so Chryst dials up the Naked Boot. Just an absolutely perfect play call and look at Tolzien’s speed! My goodness!
Clay would run it in a couple players later giving the Badgers a 31-21 lead with 3 minutes left. In a very Bielema-era fashion Minnesota would end up with the ball, down 3 with 1:13 left, but weren’t able to capitalize and Bucky took the W.
This really ended the run of good games in the rivalry for a while. It appeared both programs might be on the upswing, but Brewster was a fraud, in 2010 the card said go for two, and the Axe was mostly a formality until PJ strolled into Madison in 2018.
The 2009 game against Minnesota, remembered.
Mailbag
Rich: So a question: even post-Coan, I think the offense will be better than people expect but I’m actually more concerned about the defense. I think a lot of players in the secondary have proven to be closer to average players than difference makers and the LBs are going to be young. Especially outside. They need someone new to emerge as a force (there’s talk that’s Herbig) because otherwise I feel like we’re all going to be asking where the edge rush comes from. Am I crazy?
I’ll concede the first point for brevity’s sake (hey-oooo). I was down on the offense a bit in the last Newsletter but there’s a path to them being really good. The OL should be a strength, Mertz could be really good, they have some WR experience and bodies to choose from at RB. They also have Paul Chryst running the show and its hard to argue with his track record.
As to the defensive points, I’m more optimistic than Rich. OLB is obviously the big question mark and it makes sense to wonder the unit’s capabilities without top end talent there. The last time the defense really struggled was in 2018 when Van Ginkel was injured most of the year and Baun was not much of an impact player. This will be the first time in a while they probably won’t have a star at the position, a guy to take over the game and end possessions with his pass rush. I get that concern, but even with some drop-off, I think other units, particularly the DL can make up for it.
Going back a bit, 2018 that was the only really bad Badger defense of recent memory. We mentioned the OLB struggles, but it really started at DL. That team had 3 legit DL on the roster and all 3 got hurt. Rand missed the year with injury while Sagapolu and Loudermilk battled injuries all year and never really got going. They relied a ton on True Freshman Bryson Williams, a Freshman walk-on Henningsen and a freaking OL in Kayden Lyles. Not only did that defense make the OLBs look terrible, it made future NFLers Edwards and Connelly look pedestrian at times too.
2018 was also a defensive backfield rebuilding year after losing Tindal, Nelson, Jamerson and DCW. There was a lot going on.
This year’s team lost a few impact players from last year, notably Baun, Orr and Pearson, but that’s all they lost. They didn’t lose anyone else in the two deep. Yes, the Secondary lacks stars but they were really young at CB last year, with Caesar Williams the only upperclassman. He took a jump from his Soph to Junior year, so wouldn’t surprise me to see something more out of Hicks, Wildgoose, Harrell or whoever else. And as mentioned last week, this Newsletter doubles as a Semar Melvin Fanclub.
With DL and DB players and depth, they shouldn’t need to rely on a 1st round OLB to have a strong defense, there should (hopefully) be enough there that having “good” OLB play is good enough.
Basically, they’ve got some guys. They’ve got Jim Leonhard. I think they’ll be fine. I’m a homer, it is what it is.
The Mertz Hype
As a Badger fan who spends way too much time on the internet, its been fascinating to see the online reaction to Graham Mertz since he committed. From day one, there’s been a loud segment online convinced he is absolutely the savior and guy to lead the Badgers to new heights. Click on any Tweet about him from a beat reporter and you see lots of stuff like this, comparing him to a couple of the best college QBs of all-time.
While enthusiasm is great and I’m all for it, I’ve been struggling to wrap my head around it. Mertz certainly came in with some hype, but the Badgers have had lots of guys come in with hype, we’re Wisconsin Goddammit, not some MAC school.
Of course Mertz plays QB which elevates things, but they’ve had highly rated QBs too. Mertz was the 6th overall QB in the 2019 class using the 247 Composite which is great, but Bart Houston was 11th and I don’t remember nearly the amount of hype around him. Is 5 spots in the QB rankings really that much of a difference here?
Then it hit me, Graham Mertz is the football version of Sam Dekker.
Look at the similarities:
Both committed early, when Wisconsin was their only big offer
Both slowly but surely shot up the recruiting rankings
This is key - both had chances to play at the blue blood schools and turned it down to stay at Wisconsin, saying all the right things that the fanbase eats up.
Both had a “moment” in HS that gained National attention and primed the hype pump, Dekker with the buzzer beat in the State Tournament, Mertz with the 10 TDs or whatever in the All-American game. Seeing an incoming recruit on Sports Center does something for the fanbase.
Both were positions where Wisconsin traditionally didn’t recruit at high levels. Mertz a QB that said no thanks to Ohio State, Dekker was the 6’8” wing player the Badgers never got, an instate player who actually stayed instate.
Both were blocked by fine, but perceived low floor players their Freshman year. Dekker played plenty but lots of grumbling when Ryan Evans would get 30 minutes to his 15, Mertz had Coan, obviously.
This is also key: both are and were savvy social media guys and great with the traditional media people as well.
The basketball program Dekker walked into was not that different than the football program Mertz walked into last year. Long track record of great success but a constant need by a specific part of the fanbase to get to the “next level,” whatever that is. “Bo can’t make the Final Four” is a cousin to “Coan was a bad OPI call from winning the Rose Bowl but what’s his ceiling?” complaints.
The thing is, the Dekker actually did it! The crazy online people were right! Granted he was a secondary piece, but he was a guy with skills that translated against the Kentuckys and Arizonas of the hoops world and they certainly wouldn’t have had the success they had without him.
Maybe there’s a lesson here, but probably not. However for my sanity, mentally grouping Mertz in with Dekker helps my old, cranky, cynical Badger mind make sense of it all. Now we just need Chimere Dike to be the football version of Frank Kaminsky and National Championship here we come.
Alright that’ll do it for this week. Now who is going to get me a family pass so I can be at Camp Randall this fall? Go Badgers.
Love the newsletter. Any chance of 2020 Prop bets? I miss those.