This Week in Badgers: Iowa, Recruiting, Long Snapping and More!
Season 2, Episode 12
Welcome to the BAYWATCH 2020 headquarters, also known as This Week in Badgers. I guess we should talk about the Iowa game, find enthusiasm for what’s left of the season, talk recruiting and of course look back at the 1994 squad.
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From last week:
I wrote about Adam Bay and he responded by having one of the best plays of the Iowa game with a fumble recovery that set up the lone Badger TD. How many Mannelly Award semi-finalists did that? BAYWATCH 2020 for life. Since last week’s article, he and most of his family have followed me on Twitter and/or subscribed to the Newsletter to which I say, thank you.
Here’s hoping for more extra point snaps and fewer punt snaps next week.
IOWA
I don’t have a ton of Iowa takes other than my word that was depressing. It’s one thing to get run by a good Ohio State or Alabama team, those things happen. Losing in Evanston, whatever. But to never really be competitive against a mediocre Iowa team that had their QB airmailing guys and generally playing scared for nearly 3 quarters, kicking punts off the ground and seemingly BEGGING the Badgers to make a game of it? Rough.
As soon as the Jalen Berger news came out I think we all knew what was coming and I haven’t seen too many ledge jumpers on my Twitter feed, but no use in sugarcoating what was a miserable late December afternoon. It sucked.
As I mentioned last week, I try to stay above freaking out about the play calling but I found myself a bit annoyed at the game plan on Saturday. It seemed like for the 3rd straight week, newly minted play-caller Joe Rudolph tried to run on the first couple possessions, didn’t get much out of it and said “screw it, let’s try throwing” and things got worse in a hurry.
That probably happened to an extent, but on re-watch my playing calling anger mostly subsided. I want to focus a little bit on the 1st down struggles which I think made Rudolph’s job tough.
To be fair, ALL of the downs on offense have sucked but its really been noticeable on first downs. These are traditionally times when they 1) Use the running game to set up a 2nd and short or medium 2) The passing game can take advantage of the defense loading up against the run.
My favorite Badger offense to watch was the 2010 team. Of course the OL and rushing game were incredible but what made that team go was Tolzien taking advantage of the first down pass. That year he threw 110 times on first down, completed 70% of them and averaged 9.5 yards per attempt. A machine.
Going back to Mertz, since the beautiful strike to Dike early against Northwestern, everything went to hell and he is at exactly 3 yards per attempt with a 48% completion rate on first down. Overall on the season he’s at 6.6 per and 50% on first down.
OF COURSE the Tolzien comparison is unfair, so let’s look at 2015 Joel Stave without a rushing game: 66% completion percentage, 9 yards per attempt. Or we can go with Freshman year Hornibrook: 58%, 7.8 per.
Mertz’s early down struggles unfortunately just mean they have to pass more. When they throw incomplete on 1st and 10, they now have a 2nd and 10 where you probably need to pass again. And so on. Outside of the Dike run, the Badgers averaged 2.2 yards rushing on first down against Iowa so its hard to say that was the obvious play either. There were no easy play calling answers when Iowa is loaded up to stop the run on 1st down and you still can’t pass.
Rich sent me a DM with his offensive thoughts and I think its dead-on.
So 3 things in my mind:
We are discounting Bartolini is completely out of his depth and Sampson also struggled, so it basically kills inside zone which negates a huge chunk of the playbook.
There is now a true freshman who knows about 4 plays lapping 3rd year players at WR so they’re trying to do anything to give the passing game a more favorable look.
Whatever the issue with signals may be, they are losing a ton of time on the play clock that they’d be using for shifts, motions and the like that is integral to their run game. It’s a sloppy shit show right now. No way around it. Play calling ranks low for me.
This is really good and I thank Rich for the content. Particularly #3 which I hadn’t thought about that much other than general annoyance. Having to have the QB run to the sidelines for the play (again…WTF is going on there?) throws off the traditional timing for pre-snap motion and can’t be good for the overall “flow” however you want to define that.
Reader Mail
In your analysis, could you please breakdown the Groshek wildcat on 4th and 1 in the second quarter? Very well designed play. Seemed to be a great call, but Iowa must’ve stolen the call. - Tony M
I’m sensing a heavy dose of sarcasm from Tony, but what the hell let’s take a look.
Pre-snap, Badger responsibilities in red, the yellow line is the Iowa defender who blows it up.
Sorry for the MS Paint job here but the Badgers brought in an extra OL (Seltzner) and put him on the strong side with Bruss moving to a TE spot. Its pretty straight forward blocking with everyone taking the guy in front of them, relying on Sampson (uncovered) to pull to fill the B gap, and Stokke/Groshek to handle the other uncovered guy which looks like the SS up as basically the 4th LB. Throw in the wrinkle of having the backside TE leak out for a pass just in case Iowa completely falls asleep.
And then what happened?
Before Groshek can even react the Iowa ILB is in his face after blowing right by Sampson. Of course this is on Sampson who wasn’t asked to do much and whiffed, but a problem with the Wildcat is the LBs don’t need to respect the pass option even a little bit and can fly to their gaps at the snap. So like everything lately, its a combination of bad ideas from the coaching staff and execution from the players.
The infuriating Wildcat play, remembered.
For the Health and Sanity of the Badger fanbase, please beat Minnesota.
From Zac H:
If we play and beat Minnesota next weekend, I think this season is a success. We achieved the following:
1. We played football - although I was against this in the first place, I do feel for the seniors who aren't planning to come back, at least they got some semblance of a senior season.
2. We will always have Mertz vs. Illinois
3. We smashed Michigan in prime time
4. We (hopefully) retain the axe.
I’ve written about this in the past but the Bad Bowl Games can really be the savior of bad years and boy oh boy would it be nice to beat Minnesota on Saturday. I guess they can also still play a bad bowl game? Whatever, let’s focus on the issue at hand!.
Yes, we can’t unsee the past 3 games but just something to go on this spring would be nice. Give me a good Jalen Berger game ah crap he found out last Friday he had COVID and won’t be playing. Uh…give me Devin Chandler getting more touches than Jack Dunn, Mertz not looking like Allen Everidge, just something. In 15 years I want to look back at this season and think “man that was weird with no fans and few games, they did kick the shit of Michigan and PJ Fleck at least.”
We’re not asking for much, make it happen Badgers I beg you.
Other Stuff
Lovie Smith: GONE.
This week in SB Nation Tweets that try so hard they go over my head
Some sarcasm here I suppose but Illinois seemed to peak at 6-7 last year and 2-5 (4 loses by 14+ points) in year 5 of Lovie Ball. I’d be fine giving all coaching staffs a pass for this year, but seems clear it wasn’t working out. Also who are the legacy programs they beat outside of our Badgers? There aren’t many wins to pick from. Anyways.
I was living in Chicago when Lovie was hired by Illinois and remember being completely flabbergasted at the local hype when he was announced. I know in retrospect we can play the “Illinois was bad before him and bad now, no big deal” rationale but that was not at all the expectation among their fanbase at the time.
And yes, Bret Bielema and his agent are all over this one.
Not a unique thought, especially from a Wisconsin person but this seems like a good opportunity for Lance Leipold. Not a flashy hire but think he’d be good in the short term to get Illinois back on track. He’s used to having success at off-the-map places, has lots of experience with the transfer and JUCO world and I think he could somewhat quickly get Illinois back to at least fighting for Bowl eligibility every once in a while. At 56 years old, he’s likely to both take the Illinois job and do it without breaking the bank, and seems like a guy that can at least get them going on the right track so whoever is after him isn’t inheriting the dumpster fire the program has been for the past decade. They just need someone to get them out of the cellar and worry about taking the next steps later.
Feels better to me than swinging on a young MAC coach or retreads who have been out of the head coaching world for a bit.
Nobody:
Barry Alvarez: Brett Bielema blew the 2008 Michigan State game.
I love it. I don’t think he’s ever cared about self-censoring but as he gets older he really doesn’t care about it. He’s essentially the shadow Big Ten commissioner at this point and spends his day talking about COVID policy to the New York Times, so when you get him on local sports radio talking about refs he’s happy to let it fly. I appreciate that.
Lets Remember Some Other Disappointing Badger Teams
2020 is so weird it is impossible to have a straightforward comparison but I want to make the case for the 1994 team.
The 1994 team had high expectations after the 1993 Big Ten Champions (you guys ever hear of this team?), but like 2020, never got going. They got destroyed in Boulder, but when they rebounded the next week to beat a ranked Indiana team by 49 the optimism was back, then dashed by a 2-3-1 stretch that doomed their season. 1994, I feel you.
Like 2020, the 1994 group had all sorts of injury issues, of course losing Lee Deramus in training camp, Brent Moss for 5 games due to injury/suspension and Bevell for most of 3 games with injury. Terrell Fletcher was a fantastic #2 RB to have but outside that they didn’t have the depth to make up for those injuries.
The WR group in particular had strong 2020 vibes. They lost Lee Deramus in camp and were left with one known quantity WR in JC Dawkins who was a good #2 receiver but not a lead guy. Opposite him they tried these guys as starters:
Reggie Torian (3 starts): Had one good play - a reverse he was taking for a long TD but fumbled it out of the end zone while attempting to celebrate. He ended the year with 5 catches and soon quit to focus on track.
Kevin Huntley (3 starts) - Freshman WR with 10 catches who would move to DB the following year.
Matt Nyquist (1 start)- Tight End starting at WR, why not.
Vince Zullo (1 start): A Senior who walked-on so Jack Dunn could run.
Tony Simmons (4 starts): Exciting Freshman who could only run 1 route as a Freshman (go deep!), but ran it really well.
Two very low moments in that season - losing 14-17 to Minnesota, giving the Gophers their only Big Ten win of the year, and putting up 203 total yards in a 24-3 loss in Ohio State. The Minnesota game was especially “fun” as the Badgers offense reached the red zone 4 times, and got 7 total points.
That team did what we would like to see the 2020 version do and finished on a high note by beating a bad Cincinnati team, an average Illinois team and then ran wild in the Hall of Fame Bowl against Duke. That is the sort of palate cleanser needed as the 2020 team limps to the end.
1994 Wisconsin Badgers, remembered.
Recruiting: The TWIB Survey
Its really hard to write about National Signing Day. You basically have two options: 1) go all-in on the rankings, celebrate like you won the Super Bowl and contemplate how you’ll have room for 4 All-American RBs in the same backfield (or do the opposite for your 40th ranked class) or 2) Or just go middle of the road, praising all the fine young men the program got who went to Wisconsin because of the education and have such a bond with the staff and all that good stuff that every recruit says about every program they commit to. Long rants about how the rating system is flawed, and so on. Either way is unfulfilling to me.
Its compounded by Wisconsin being Wisconsin. They didn’t bring in an Ohio State level class, but did they bring in a good Wisconsin class? No idea! We might find out in 3 years.
I put out a quick survey to get some fan takes, which I think are just as illuminating as National and Local media. I love Jesse Temple’s work but he’s never going to say “they really blew it with DL recruiting this year.” Even the Rivals/247 guys don’t go too hard on the negative side, it’s going to burn bridges with their UW contacts and subscribers don’t pay $5.99 a month to read that their team signed a bunch of MAC dudes.
But fans can let it fly which helps give us narratives going forward. Everyone loves this OL class, but what if it turns out to be mostly busts? The receivers are huge question marks, but what if we look back in 6 years and marvel at how they got two future NFL Pro Bowlers in Skyler Bell and Markus Allen in the same class? It gives us a narrative baseline to start from as these guys get to Wisconsin and begin their college careers.
Plus guessing at this stuff is fun. Its fun to see a YouTube of a RB and think they’ve got the next Jonathan Taylor (my Caleb Kinlaw/James White comparison FTW) or go the opposite way and claim a 4 star guy the Badgers have spent literal years recruiting isn’t actually that good because you hate his Twitter feed. Its especially fun watching High School OL recruits pummel some 165 lb DE. Always love OL highlight videos. Its awesome.
So I put out a call on Twitter to the fine TWIB readers for their takes on this class and got some fun feedback to sort through. So let’s roll.
No surprise LBs lead the way with nearly 60% for the first question. Chaney, Adebogun, Ratzlaff, Sanborn, Peterson, Allen, Acker (I think?) and Bollers. Those are a ton of bodies with some highly rated guys.
The 22.7% on the second question is CBs, which joined RB and DL as thing we’re most lukewarm about.
@drewhamm5 wrote in: If I could be more specific, I wish they had recruited a nose tackle.
I’m with Drew and the pollsters on this one. I bet the Badgers staff might be too. You would have loved to see some impact guys in there to replace the bevy of upperclassmen currently in the position. I still have nightmares about 2018.
Perhaps I could have timed this poll for a time when the fanbase didn’t have PTSD about the RB/WR position, but those spots…were a theme.
@nathant10: We have zero composite 4-stars from the CB,WR,RB group. These are the weakest positions on the team currently. They will continue to be the weakest positions, even though I like the 3 stars we are bringing in.
@Ari a_ismaili: Mostly impressed with how much recruiting has improved(at least it feels like it has to me). WR,CB, and DL are the positions I think they need to start recruiting better at to take that proverbial "next step"
@BadgerLocal: It’s now very possible that the cupboard is bare at RB (uncharacteristically) and WR (at a really bad time) in the years to come.
Nathan L: Seems like other than Berger, we have a lot of average in the running back room and I feel like we just added more average.
@MSING2ME: So, all eyes of M. Allen and Bell. The elephant in the room is WR, which has been and only exposed by this season’s play. They need a Toon/Cephus type that can develop quickly and be dependable. Is it in this class or on the roster? No clue, but that’s the biggest question mark in a class where I think it’s safe to say they did what they needed to do everywhere else for sure.
@Ben_Oehler: The transfer market is going to huge for them to bring in a WR or two that can immediately help.
@vandythechamp: WR is still the position the badgers recruit the worst (this DB class has me hopeful) and need to a Cepheus level hit again soon.
Steve from Portland: Not recruiting, per se, but interested to see what the transfer (in) opportunities may be.
Most responses were a few sentences about the good parts of the class and then a sentence about RB/WR. I pulled just those parts for brevity’s sake and put above. I promise our fanbase hasn’t completely lost it’s mind and if I cut your answer off to make you seem more negative than you were, I’m sorry.
But yeah, its going to be a very long off-season worrying about the skill position group.
Also credit to these two people who made me laugh:
@RWS_Ben: I'm curious to see which LB is a FB by fall camp.
Gary: No long snapper?
My quick hot takes because I know you care:
I wish I was more excited about the QB. He got an early offer based on workouts/camps before he played many games and though UCLA (currently at the bottom of the Pac 12 in recruiting) offered, he didn’t really blow up in the recruiting world since then. Its how Wisconsin has to operate with a position they have to pull guys from long distances, but I don’t feel super confident. I’d absolutely love to be wrong of course.
I think the Wisconsin kids will surprise. Hunter Wohler ran away with the “most excited” about category and Benz3 is highly rated, so they wouldn’t be a surprise but Acker, Crawford and Adebogun are a few of the lower rated guys in the class and with High School football and recruiting so weird this year I think it kept them lower on some National radars than they might normally have been.
I love that they got two RBs. Part of the reason RB is such a struggle now is they just don’t have the numbers for it. Jonathan Taylor left a year early, Julius Davis is MIA and they’re left with a walk-on, a converted WR, Nakia Watson and Jalen Berger. I think they know they need bodies and got a couple of guys pretty early in the cycle so they weren’t left sweating it out in January like they were last year. They might not have gotten a 4 or 5 star RB to pair with Berger next year but being able to bring in two 3 star guys is the next best thing.
Nit picking the OL - do we need to be concerned about the pipeline for the interior line? They’ve got more Tackle prospects than they know what to do with but seem less focused recruiting on the interior. Maybe that’s fine, no reason they can’t move some of the guys around to fill spots, its just something that sticks out to me after watching them use a True Freshman and Sampson (a TE/DE recruit in 2018) at the Center spot this year.
Whew, that’s all I got. I took a risk doing all this before NSD is complete so maybe we have some surprises that change everything, it would be very 2020 which means we probably will. Alas.
Let’s cut it there, thanks for reading. Feel free to respond to this or @ me on Twitter with any feedback, long snapper theories or comments. Go Badgers.